King Charles laid it down in his opening address:

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, to his credit, struck the same note:

Razan Al Mubarak, the President of the IUCN, has stressed the crucial importance of Nature-Based Solutions, saying:

2023 was the year that the twin tracks of international climate and nature negotiations finally drew close. The COP27 decision text encouraged countries for the first time to harness the power of nature through nature-based solutions: habitats that also sequester carbon, like woodlands, wetlands and species-rich grasslands. 

In December in Montreal, 188 Governments signed the Global Biodiversity Framework pledge to stop and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030 and achieve 30% of land and water managed for nature.

How is COP28 set to build on that progress?

9 December was ‘Nature, Land Use and Oceans Day’, when we expected a big focus on bridging the finance gap for nature-based solutions. The UN estimates the global spend on nature based solutions is currently £154bn, and says that is less than half where it needs to be by 2025 and one third of where needs to be by 2030.

But ironically, the most significant reason to be hopeful may not stem from negotiations under a Nature heading at all.

Instead, it stems from a surprise declaration on Day Two: the Emirates Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action.

Why does a Food Declaration matter more than a Nature Day?

Because food and farming represents one third of all global emissions. It is also the single biggest driver of biodiversity loss globally, through pesticide use and replacement of farming systems with intensively-farmed monocultures. Transforming our food and farming system – globally, nationally, locally - is the single biggest focus we should all have in mobilising for a nature-positive, net zero future.

Here in Wiltshire, 80% of the land is farmed. It is simple maths that a target to manage 30% of land for nature by 2030 can’t be achieved without putting nature-friendly farming at its heart.

Until now, the UK’s Climate Change Committee has felt unable to focus on nature in its recommendations on farming and land use, due to its narrow mandate via the Climate Act. It has also arguably neglected climate adaptation, with a resulting blind spot on soil health. With the Environment Act’s world-leading legally binding target for reversing biodiversity loss by 2030 has come a new mandate, which the Government must formally instruct the Committee to respond to with a revised Land Use and Agriculture pathway to Net Zero.

This matters because a Net Zero pathway for farming and land use is not automatically a nature-positive one. Too great a focus on growing bioenergy for carbon capture and storage (BECCS) can force farming down an ever more intensive pathway of yield maximisation and agrichemical use, which also threatens soil health and climate resilience.

By contrast, the Consensus on Food, Farming and Nature recognises the huge strides made with the National Food Strategy and Green Alliance’s subsequent Shaping UK Land Use report. This ground-breaking analysis explained how to square the circle for food security, climate and nature, through a transition to more resilient, agroecological farming systems, in tandem with a healthy diet transition.

The Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action is a crucial first step and a reason to be hopeful. The big test is whether this cuts through to the formal COP28 decision text and those all-important national climate plans uncorrupted by the lobbying efforts of the global agrichemical industry.